Just 7,650 votes could be enough to win a directly-elected seat in Sunday’s Legislative Assembly ballot, according to an article by local political scientist Paulo Godinho in the Portuguese-language daily Tribuna de Macau on Friday.
This would mean that 4.5 percent of the total number of votes would suffice to win one of the 14 directly-elected seats at stake.
Godinho describes the hypothetical 7,650 votes to win a seat in the legislature’s hemicycle on Sunday a “reasonable probability”.
The estimate is based on an expected voter turnout of about 170,000, or 61.3 percent of the electorate.
Based on the hypothetical 61.3 percent voter turnout, 11,334 votes would “guarantee” the election of a candidate, according to Godinho.
Macau’s highest voter turnout was recorded in 1996, when it reached 64.49 percent.
Godinho points out that Sunday’s election will beat at least three records: 1) The highest number of registered voters (277,153); 2) The highest number of directly-elected seats at stake (14); 3) The highest number of groups vying for the legislature’s directly-elected seats (20).
Godinho also expects the highest number of voters to cast their ballot on Sunday, based on the observation that during the last five legislative elections the number of voters increased each time.
In 2009, a record 149,006 voters cast their ballot, resulting in a voter turnout of 59.91 percent.
Godinho forecast that Sunday’s number of voters will range between 160,000 and 175,000.
There are 145 candidates representing 20 groups this time, 10.3 candidates per seat at stake.(macaunews)